Estimating Future Urban Heat Island Effect Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenario: A Case Study of Busan City

초록

Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) intensify extreme heat, raise energy demand, and risk citizen thermal comfort in densely built cities. However, spatially detailed, scenario-differentiated estimates of future UHI intensity are still limited for complex coastal mountainous cities. This study set out to forecast UHI intensity variations in Busan, South Korea, under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Daily temperatures from 19 automatic weather stations (2010–2014) were spatially interpolated using Empirical Bayesian Kriging Regression (EBKR), which included elevation and coastline distance variables. Among the 16 CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) tested, CNRM-CM6-1 (r = 0.902, RMSE = 4.937 °C) was chosen and bias-corrected using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM). The results reveal that mean maximum UHI intensity rises gradually, with ΔUHI (compared with the 2010–2014 baseline of 0.90 °C) reaching +7.03 °C (SSP2-4.5) and +9.60 °C (SSP5-8.5) in the far future, roughly 1.43 times more under the high-emission scenario. Summer through autumn has a UHI intensity increase, whereas long-term warming concentrates in Busan’s urban core. These findings inform targeted urban heat adaptation strategies, prioritizing green infrastructure, cool urban surfaces, and energy-resilient city planning to protect human well-being. © 2026 by the authors.

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