A Simplified Probabilistic Framework for Evaluating the Contribution of Solar Photovoltaic Generation to Power Systems

초록

This paper presents a probabilistic simulation framework for quantitatively evaluating the contribution of solar cell generators (SCGs) to modern power systems. Unlike conventional generators using storable fuels modeled by simple two states, solar generation is non-storable and inherently uncertain, requiring a more realistic approach. A multi-state probabilistic model is therefore developed—not as a fixed structure, but as a direct reflection of solar resource variability. By integrating the PV output curve with the empirical probability density function (pdf) of solar irradiance, the model captures weather-dependent generation behavior. Case studies on a scaled Jeju Island system verify its effectiveness in evaluating reliability (LOLE, EENS), production cost, and CO₂ emissions, and demonstrate its value for scenario-based planning under increased solar penetration. The proposed framework highlights the transition from deterministic assumptions to probabilistic realism, offering a robust foundation for sustainable and data-driven energy planning. © 2010-2012 IEEE.

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