생활용수 실적자료와 기후 변수를 활용한 충청권역 생활용수 이용량 패턴 분석

초록

Persistent droughts due to climate change will intensify water shortage problems in Korea. According to the 1st National Water Management Plan, the shortage of domestic and industrial waters is projected to be 0.07 billion m³/year under a 50-year drought event. A long-term prediction of water demand is essential for effectively responding to water shortage problems. Unlike industrial water, which has a relatively constant monthly usage, domestic water is analyzed on monthly basis due to apparent monthly usage patterns. We analyzed monthly water usage patterns using water usage data from 2017 to 2021 in Chungcheong, South Korea. The monthly water usage rate was calculated by dividing monthly water usage by annual water usage. We also calculated the water distribution rate considering correlations between water usage rate and climate variables. The division method that divided the monthly water usage rate by monthly average temperature resulted in the smallest absolute error. Using the division method with average temperature, we calculated the water distribution rates for the Chungcheong region. Then we predicted future water usage rates in the Chungcheong region by multiplying the average temperature of the SSP5-8.5 scenario and the water distribution rate. As a result, the average of the maximum water usage rate increased from 1.16 to 1.29 and the average of the minimum water usage rate decreased from 0.86 to 0.84, and the first quartile decreased from 0.95 to 0.93 and the third quartile increased from 1.04 to 1.06. Therefore, it is expected that the variability in monthly water usage rates will increase in the future.

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