PROBABILITY OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL PROPAGATION FROM METEOROLOGICAL TO HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN SOUTH KOREA

초록

Drought propagation is classified into temporal propagation, which refers to the process where one type of drought causes another over time, and spatial propagation, which refers the phenomenon of a drought expanding to other regions after drought onset. Quantifying the temporal and spatial variability of droughts is critical importance. This study defines spatiotemporal propagation as the phenomenon where a specific type of drought develops into other types of droughts over time, concurrently expanding spatially. The probability of spatiotemporal propagation for hydrological drought was estimated based on copula functions using meteorological drought characteristics. Results indicate that the probability of spatio-temporal propagation increases with the duration of meteorological drought, whereas the onset of spatio-temporal propagation tends to occur in the short-term after meteorological drought onset. © 2025 IAHR.

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