IFRS17 보험부채평가시 손해율가정 적정성에 대한 실증분석 및 개선방안

초록

IFRS17 requires insurers to evaluate insurance liabilities based on the best estimate of the future cash flows related to insurance contracts. To effectively estimate these cash flows, insurers employ actuarial assumptions, such as loss-ratios, lapse rates and expenses. Among these assmptions, loss-ratio assumptions are used to estimate future claims and exert a significant impact on the valuation of insurance liabilities. In Korea, ‘current expected-actual ratio’ is used to assess the adequacy of the loss-ratio assumptions. However, this metric has substantial limitations in assessing adequacy of loss-ratio assumptions. The empirical analysis in this study demonstrates that insurers recognize smaller insurance liabilities and higher insurance profits when employing optimistic loss-ratio assumptions. Furthermore, this study proposes new analytical metrics(future and combined expected-actual ratios) to overcome the limitations of the existing metric. The findings show that these new analytical tools are effective in assessing the adequacy of loss-ratio assumptions.

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