ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF DROUGHT OCCURRENCE BASED ON A SCENARIO-NEUTRAL APPROACH: A CASE STUDY OF THE SEOMJIN RIVER BASIN, SOUTH KOREA

초록

Since South Korea has a distinct climatic characteristic that precipitation is concentrated in the summer, water management policies based on scientific analysis are needed to cope with climate change. This study focused on determining the sensitivity of the drought occurrence probability due to climate change in the Seomjin River basin. After generating 68,040 time series to account for the range of future climate change, the probability of drought occurrence was calculated using a 5-year moving window, and a response surface-based sensitivity assessment was performed. The results showed that the probability of drought occurrence was close to zero in humid environments with low rainfall variability. The results can provide a scientific basis for future drought management and climate change adaptation strategies. © 2025 IAHR.

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