유동성의 변동이 주택가격 변동성에 미치는 영향

초록

This study analyzed the effect of monetary liquidity on the resiential real estate market with a proxy of housing and rent price. We hypothesize that the monetary liquidity will have a positive impact on the housing and rent price. In order to test this hypothesis, we adopt the VECM(Vector Error Correction Model) as an empirical methodology. Furthermore, we adopt the impulse response analysis and variance decompose analysis. The findings are as follow; First, there is a positive relation between monetary liquidity and housing market and rental market, indicating the increase of monetary liquidity has a direct impact on the housing and rent price. Therefore, we conclude that the expansionary monetary policy has not only influenced the overall macro-economy but also directly affected the real estate market. Second, we find that the M1 has a larger effect on housing and rental market than other factors. In this sense, the monetary policy via short-term liquidity is most efficient way to influence the residential real estate market and satisfy the governmental policy role. In sum, we conclude that the monetary policy on short-term liquidity has been a direct impact on residential housing market and a influential factor for the overall domestic economy.

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