낙동강 유역에서의 기상학적 가뭄의 공간적 전이에 대한 근원지 잠재영향 평가

초록

As the risk of drought occurrence increases due to climate change, various research works are underway around the world to analyze drought propagation from various perspectives, This study identified the source and sink regions of the spatial propagation of meteorological drought and evaluated the potential effects of the source regions. The results of the propagation potential (PP), which quantifies the extent to which droughts onset in a specific region propagate to other regions, indicated that the source regions of drought propagation are seasonally located in similar areas. The results of the potential influence of source region (PISR), which quantifies represents the extent to which a specific region is affected by drought propagation from the other source regions, indicated that 99.49 % of the source regions had a PISR value of 0.5 or more, while 23.68 % of the sink regions had a value of 0.5 or more. The source regions with high PISR values have high intensity of drought propagation from other regions within the study area. Therefore, the source regions were identified to significantly interact with other source regions, playing an intermediary role in the spatial propagation of drought in the Nakdong River Basin. In addition, considering spatial autocorrelation of seasonal propagation potential, the propagation potential of spring was highest compared to other seasons. This indicates that the frequency of drought event and spatial drought propagation are more frequent in spring.

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