주택시장 변동리스크를 최소화하기 위한 주택사업모델 개발

초록

This paper proposes a housing business model, where the presale and Chonsei housing are supplied under a presale system at the same time based on the characteristic correlation between the housing presale market and Chonsei market in Korea. Markowitz portfolio theory was used to review the risk diversification effects from the changes in the ratio between the presale housing supply and the Chonsei housing supply. The housing sale price indicator was used as a proxy variable to determine the presale housing supply. The housing Chonsei price indicator was used as a proxy variable to determine the Chonsei housing supply. The proposed housing business model was applied to major areas in Korea to examine the risk diversification effect. Comparisons of the regional portfolio analyses showed that the flexibility of the proposed housing business model can be quite effective because each regional housing market exhibits different characteristics. Market participants, such as developers, construction companies, consumers, and government, can expect various effects through the proposed housing business model. Nevertheless, policy support is necessary for practical applications of the proposed housing business model. In particular, public funds from the government need to be introduced.

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