IFRS 17하의 확률론적 해지율 모형에 관한 연구

초록

The needs for calculating more precise lapse risk are increasing as lapse risk will be newly applied in risk adjustments and risk categories when IFRS 17 and K-ICS (Korean Insurance Capital Standard) will be introduced. This study researches a stochastic lapse model which can be used in computing precise lapse risk in IFRS 17 and K-ICS. We defines continuation function and force of lapse, and we derives a stochastic lapse model which can be composed by a stochastic term following Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and a trend term presenting lapse term structure. This study derives three lapse models according to constant, dynamic, and stepwise standard deviations. The models can reflect term structure of lapse. This study generates 1,000 stochastic lapse scenarios for 240 months using force of lapse by simple method.

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