주가와 지역별 부동산가격 변동 간의 관계성 분석

초록

Investment target such as a stock market may have influence on housing demand and housing price as it works as a motive for asset investment. A stock market and real estate market forms a relationship of either asset synchronization or asset replacement depending on a given circumstance. The amount of working capital may shift due to investment rate of return; or the two indicators may move in the same direction in response to overall market situation. In real estate market, investment demand may vary in different regions. Thus, a stock market and a local real estate market might show various and dynamic relationships. In this study, the dynamic relationship between stock index and local real estate value is examined using VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). For this purpose, stock index was analyzed to measure condition of a stock market. For indicator of local real estate market, the housing sales price index in Gangnam and Gangbuk area in Seoul was used. Concerning time-series analysis of each variable, monthly data from the National Statistical Office and Kookmin Bank was used. The analysis result demonstrated that the real estate value showed varying correlation with stock price in Gangnam and Gangbuk area.

키워드