구조방정식모형과 베이지안 네트워크를 활용한 가뭄 영향인자의 민감도 분석

초록

Drought occurs extensively over a long period and causes great socio-economic damage. Since drought risk consists of social, environmental, physical, and economic factors along with meteorological and hydrological factors, it is important to quantitativelyidentify their impacts on drought risk. This study investigated the relationship among drought hazard, vulnerability, response capacity, and risk in Chungcheongbuk-do using a structural equation model and evaluated their impacts on drought risk using Bayesiannetworks. We also performed sensitivity analysis to investigate how the factors change drought risk. Overall results showed that Chungju-si had the highest risk of drought. The risk was calculated as the largest even when the hazard and response capacity werechanged. However, when the vulnerability was changed, Eumseong-gun had the greatest risk. The sensitivity analysis showed thatJeungpyeong-gun had the highest sensitivity, and Jecheon-si, Eumseong-gun, and Okcheon-gun had highest individual sensitivities with hazard, vulnerability, and response capacity, respectively. This study concluded that it is possible to identify impact factors on drought risk using regional characteristics, and to prepare appropriate drought countermeasures considering regional drought risk

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