혁신적 다각 경향성 분석을 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 전라도 월 강수량의 경향성 분석

초록

Precipitation is a crucial meteorological variable widely used as essential input data in most hydrological models. However, due to climate change, there is an escalating precipitation variability. Trend analysis plays an important role in planning and operating water resources systems. As recently developed, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) is useful in identifying and and analyzing the trends of hydrologic variables. In this study, the IPTA was applied to monthly precipitation data obtained from 13 meteorological observatories in Jeolla province, along with synthesized precipitation data according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The trend results were compared those obtained from the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimation which are generally used in practice. The results revealed monthly precipitations from February to July and November had increasing trends, and monthly precipitation in October had a decreasing trend. IPTA, Mann-Kendall test, and Sen’s slope estimation detected trends in 75.00 %, 5.13 %, and 5.13 % of 156(13 stations × 12 months) time series of monthly precipitation, respectively, which indicates that the IPTA is more sensitive in trend detection compared to the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimation.

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