시진핑-김정은 시기 북중 ‘전략적 협력’ 평가와 전망

초록

This study aims to project the future trajectory of North Korea-China relations by analyzing the factors that facilitate or constrain the 'strategic cooperation' between North Korea and China during the Xi Jinping-Kim Jong Un era. To this end, the factors that facilitate or constrain strategic cooperation between North Korea and China are analyzed at three levels: structural, bilateral relations, and domestic political dimensions. The analysis results indicate that the structural dimension, exemplified by the intensification of the U.S.-China strategic competition and the Russia-Ukraine war, has had the greatest impact in promoting 'strategic cooperation' between North Korea and China. Conversely, the factors that constrain 'strategic cooperation' between North Korea and China include the lack of mutual 'strategic trust' in the bilateral relations dimension and domestic factors such as China's 'great power' identity and North Korea's 'de facto nuclear state' identity. This implies that the stronger the structural factors such as the U.S.-China strategic competition and the Russia-Ukraine war become, the more likely it is to promote strategic cooperation between North Korea and China. Conversely, the more influence bilateral relations and domestic factors have, the more likely they are to constrain strategic cooperation between North Korea and China. Considering that North Korea has actively utilized its geopolitical value and 'great power politics' to stabilize its regime and address economic difficulties, it is highly likely that the Kim Jong Un regime will also utilize North Korea-China 'strategic cooperation' in its so-called 'survival strategy.' From South Korea's perspective, it is necessary to prepare for the ripple effects that various factors promoting or constraining strategic cooperation between North Korea and China might have on its foreign policy.

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