중국 자율주행 산업의 혁신 가능성에 대한 탐색적 연구: 기술 추격 모델을 중심으로

초록

This study investigated China's catch-up possibility in the field of autonomous vehicle by analyzing the technological catch-up model (the change of windows of opportunity in the aspect of technological, demand, institutional/policy change). Firstly, technological paradigm shifts in core technologies and components, the demand for advanced infrastructure, and the importance of data and demonstration were providing opportunities for Chinese firms. On the market side, due to a sufficient growth potential of Chinese B2B, and B2C market, there will be opportunities for Chinese firms to catch up. Finally, from the policy aspect, the Chinese government was supporting the local companies through aggressive R&D policies and negative regulation system. Overall, the window of opportunity in terms of technology, market, and policy is all beneficial to the Chinese firms’ catch-up, and thus, numerous Chinese tech giants and start-ups are very aggressively catching up the leader group of autonomous vehicle industry. Nevertheless, the passive behavior of traditional automakers and excessive government intervention will exert a negative impact on Chinese firms’ catch-up because dominant designs and killer applications are yet to be established in the autonomous vehicle industry. Additionally, insufficient preparations for ethics and social conflict, rapid changes in global value chains (GVCs) are expected to increase the uncertainty in the future.

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