혼합정규분포를 이용한 부산항 입항 컨테이너 선박의 선형 분석

초록

Global increase of container vessels" size has been accelerated for the recent years. In this study, we attempted to estimate distributions of the container vessels" size entering Busan port and explore their annual trends. Annual data on the container vessels" size over the period 2008-2012 were used for empirical analysis to estimate mixture of normal distribution. Analysis results revealed that the application of mixture of normal distribution was appropriate and parameter estimates distinctly showed main characteristics of each group. From the perspective of policy implications, this study highlighted that feeder berths in Busan Newport must be developed and a small fraction of container terminals should be specialized in port services corresponding to the entrance of super containerships at least in the short term. This study increased explanation ability of the model by properly describing size distributions with multi-modality, skewness, or excess kurtosis. Finally, these findings will contribute to establishing the policy on the development of Busan port.

키워드