Dynamic mechanism of electricity consumption in urban agglomerations in China based on a human-climate-spatiality framework

초록

With the intensification of climate change and the acceleration of urbanization, the elec- tricity system faces dual challenges of increasing demand pressure and conflicting car- bon reduction targets. As the core units of regional economic development, urban ag- glomerations urgently need to monitor and simulate electricity resources to formulate optimal management strategies and sustainable development plans. This study adopted a Human-Climate-Spatiality framework, integrating human development, climate change, and spatial structure factors to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of electricity consumption (EC) within urban agglomerations and simulate growth trends under different scenarios. The results revealed that EC in urban agglomerations gradu- ally became balanced, with growth trends shifting from northeast to southwest regions. The spatial structures of urban agglomerations exhibited spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Most urban agglomerations were transitioning from a polycentric to a monocentric model, where monocentric structures tended to suppress EC growth. Under the SSP5-8.5 sce- nario, EC growth was the most significant, while under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, the growth was relatively moderate, which indicated that low-carbon scenarios effectively mitigated the rapid increase in electricity demand. Therefore, governments need to optimize spatial structures and promote the adoption of green technologies and clean energy to achieve energy conservation, emission reduction, and sustainable development.

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