장단기 메모리와 다중 출력 회귀 결합 모형 기반의 충청남도 복합 물-에너지-식량 넥서스 시스템 개발

초록

As climate change and rapid industrialization exacerbate resource scarcity, the importance of an integrated management approach that links and manages water, energy, and food resources has become increasingly critical. The existing fragmented management methods are ill-equipped to address the intricate interactions between resources, making it challenging to respond effectively to complex crises. To quantitatively assess resource interactions in the Chungcheongnam-do, this study developed a hybrid water-energy-food (WEF) nexus system that combines long short-term memory (LSTM) and multi-output regression (MOR). The system employed various input and output factors spanning 2014 to 2022, including precipitation, reservoir storage, water supply and usage, energy generation and consumption, and agricultural and livestock production and consumption, along with stress indices calculated from sectoral supply and production. The results indicated that the water and food sectors exhibited the most dominant interaction within the Chungcheongnam-do WEF nexus system. Furthermore, it was found that precipitation significantly influenced not only crop production, but also energy generation. Especially, the water stress index accounted for over 45% of the total nexus stress, identifying it as the critical determinant of system vulnerability in the region. The simulation of historical resource supply and demand fluctuations by sector using LSTM verified the model’s reproducibility, yielding R2 a -values ranging from 0.49 to 0.78 and KGE values ranging from 0.47 to 0.89. In contrast, the hybrid nexus system combining LSTM-MOR yielded higher R2 a and KGE than the standalone LSTM model. Consequently, the LSTM-MOR hybrid model developed in this study enables comprehensive nexus evaluations through sensitivity analysis for climate change scenarios, making it an essential asset for informed resource management and policy-making. © 2026 Korea Water Resources Association.

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