양안(兩岸) 경제협력의 정치적 효과 : ECFA를 중심으로

초록

This study examines the validity of functionalism's core premise on the political effects of economic cooperation through the lens of China-Taiwan relations, focusing on the ECFA case. Findings reveal that cross-Strait economic cooperation exhibits more complex and contradictory outcomes than functionalist predictions. First, deepened economic interdependence post-ECFA did not lead to political integration; instead, conflicts intensified, as evidenced by the 2014 Sunflower Movement and the 2016 DPP administration's rise. Second, asymmetric interdependence enabled China to weaponize economic ties as political leverage, heightening distrust, particularly during Taiwan's 2024 presidential election. Third, identity and sovereignty concerns in Taiwan limited spillover effects, with rising Taiwanese identity resisting unification despite economic gains. Fourth, international factors like U.S.-China rivalry, Hong Kong unrest, and the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped these dynamics, exposing functionalism's neglect of structural contexts. In conclusion, the ECFA case underscores that economic cooperation's political effects are conditioned by power asymmetries, identity issues, and geopolitics, offering key lessons for inter-Korean relations in divided states.

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