시진핑 3기 중국 대외정책의 지속과 변화: ‘중국특색 대국외교’를 중심으로

초록

This article examines how the composition of Xi Jinping’s third-term leadership affects the continuity and change of China’s foreign policy, focusing on “Major-Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics.” The analysis reveals that the establishment of the “Xi Jinping Dominance” system in the third-term will strengthen the trend of centralization and ideological orientation in China’s foreign policy. In particular, the appointment of Xi Jinping’s close associates and the institutional adjustments related to foreign policy are likely to sustain the existing policy direction and orientation of “Major-Power Diplomacy.” However, the third-term leadership simultaneously expresses confidence in China’s power and future while recognizing the current era as one marked by internal and external threats. This suggests a high possibility of adjustments and changes in the “Major-Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics.” For instance, while the long-term stance toward the United States was primarily in the domain of diplomatic and security affairs during the first and second terms, it has expanded to encompass all areas at a national level in the third term. Furthermore, efforts to establish a new international order, which emerged after the first and second terms, are expected to continue under the third term, although the prevailing academic discourse suggests that it will take considerable time for China to replace the United States. Considering this, the third-term “Major-Power Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics” is more likely to seek adjustments or changes emphasizing the recalibration of relations with major powers, strengthening global discourse power, and enhancing cooperation with developing countries represented by the Global South, rather than pursuing full-scale strategic competition with the United States.

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