구조방정식모형을 이용한 기상재해가 수력발전을 통한 전력 생산에 미치는 영향 분석

초록

Recently, global warming has accelerated climate change, increased extreme weather phenomena, and increased the frequency and intensity of weather disasters, leading to increasing uncertainty about the power production of new and renewable energy that is sensitive to weather. In fact, it has been reported that a number of damage to hydroelectric power generation have occurred due to weather disasters. Therefore, using the hydroelectric power generation performance data of Chungju Dam, meteorological data of Chungju Meteorological Observatory, and operation data of Chungju Dam, this study investigated the effect of meteorological disasters on hydroelectric power generation through structural equation modeling considering the number and intensity of meteorological disasters per month. The results indicated that the increased drought occurrence affected the decreased hydroelectric power generation by about 38.3 %, however the increased hydroelectric power generation could not explained by the increased flood occurrence. In conclusion, an increased drought occurrence in future may significantly influence hydroelectric power generation.

키워드