성향점수매칭(PSM)과 이중차분법(DID)을 활용한 성과분석: 규제자유특구 사례를 중심으로

초록

This study evaluates the causal impact of Korea’s Regulatory Free Special Zone (RFSZ) financial support program on firm-level performance by applying an integrated Propensity Score Matching (PSM) Difference-in-Differences (DID) analytical framework. Using comprehensive firm-level panel data spanning ten industries from 2018 to 2022, the analysis addresses a key empirical gap in the evaluation of place-based industrial policy. The RFSZ initiative represents a major policy experiment in regulatory innovation and regional development, involving substantial government investment, thereby necessitating rigorous impact assessment. The results indicate that participating firms experienced significant improvements in employment, suggesting that the program successfully stimulated labor demand and facilitated workforce expansion. Moreover, the program exerted positive effects on sales and asset growth, reflecting enhanced market competitiveness and growth potential among treated firms. In contrast, profitability outcomes measured by operating profit, net income, operating margin, and net return on sales were generally statistically insignificant, except for a modest effect on net income. These findings imply that while the program has contributed to short-term job creation and sales expansion, longer observation horizons may be required to detect profitability gains, particularly in capital-intensive sectors. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that combining PSM and DID enhances the credibility of causal inference in policy evaluation. Overall, the results offer a balanced assessment of the RFSZ program’s achievements and limitations, while providing a reproducible methodological framework applicable to similar regional innovation policy evaluations.

키워드