주택임대차 시장에서의 전월세전환율과 전세가비율 결정구조

초록

There had been excess profit in Korean housing market in the past years and many previous studies in Koreas performed an analysis of housing market under the assumption of the existence of excess profit. This assumption, however, makes it difficult to explain housing market especially when the market is in recession like these days. We, in this study, present a simple housing market model to study how monthly rent conversion rate and Jeonse price ratio are determined in equilibrium where a lessor is indifferent among various ways to lease the house, and we consider both the case with excess profit and the case without excess profit in housing market. We also present the model in which there exists a risk associated with monthly rent conversion from Jeonse. From these models, we derive some testable hypotheses regarding monthly rent conversion rate and Jeonse price ratio. Our theoretical predictions are supported by empirical studies: monthly rent conversion rate is affected by market interest rate only when there is no excess profit, Jeonse price ratio is negatively affected by the expected housing price.

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