2024년 대만 총통 선거와 ‘중국 변수’

초록

This article aims to examine why the so-called ‘China factor’ did not work properly in the 2024 Taiwan presidential election. China has historically exerted influence on Taiwan's presidential elections from the perspective of its strategy for reunification, and in 2024, it sought to wield influence using new methods such as social media. However, with the recent lack of significant emphasis on ‘identity’ issues within Taiwan and a growing preference among voters for maintaining the ‘status quo’, the so-called ‘China factor’ found it difficult to exert influence as all 2024 presidential candidates adopted a moderate and pragmatic stance towards China policy. While China may continue to exert influence on Taiwan in a more ‘indirect’ manner through so-called ‘gray zone’ strategies, if it persists in intervening in ways that undermine Taiwan's freedom, sovereignty, and democracy, there is a high possibility that future Taiwanese presidential elections will see parties favoring the maintenance of the ‘status quo’ in cross-strait relations come to power.

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