IMPACTS OF PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ON FUTURE RUNOFF UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS: A CASE STUDY OF THE HAN RIVER BASIN, SOUTH KOREA

초록

As climate change impacts hydrometeorological variables, the variability of runoff has increased, posing a greater challenge in establishing a water resource management plan while increasing risks to socio-economic and environmental systems. This study applied the climate elasticity approach based on the Budyko framework to quantify the impacts of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) on the future runoff under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The runoff in the future was simulated using the GR4J model. Under SSP2 scenarios, the magnitude of precipitation, PET, and runoff are projected to increase. In most sub-basins in the Han River basin of South Korea, precipitation accounted for 67-84% of the variability in runoff, while PET accounted for 11-24% of it. Understanding the variability of runoff, which is associated with the change in the meteorologic variables in global warming, may provide the background or insights for further studies on planning water resources management to adapt to the anticipated climate change. © 2025 IAHR.

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