2004 니가타 지진 사례 분석을 통한 고속철도 시스템의 지진 취약도 곡선 개발

초록

The high-speed railway system is mainly composed of tunnel, bridge, and viaduct to meet the straightness needed for keeping the high speed up to 400 km/s. Seismic fragility for the high-speed railway infrastructure can be assessed as two ways: one way is studying each element of infrastructure analytically or numerically, but it requires lots of research efforts due to wide range of railway system. On the other hand, empirical method can be used to access the fragility of an entire system efficiently, which requires case history data. In this study, we collect the 2004 MW 6.6 Niigata earthquake case history data to develop empirical seismic fragility function for a railway system. Five types of intensity measures (IMs) and damage levels are assigned to all segments of target system for which the unit length is 200 m. From statistical analysis, probability of exceedance for a certain damage level (DL) is calculated as a function of IM. For those probability data points, log-normal CDF is fitted using MLE method, which forms fragility function for each damage level of exceedance. Evaluating fragility functions calculated, we observe that T=3.0 spectral acceleration (SAT3.0) is superior to other IMs, which has lower standard deviation of log-normal CDF and low error of the fit. This indicates that long-period ground motion has more impacts on railway infrastructure system such as tunnel and bridge. It is observed that when SAT3.0 = 0.1 g, P(DL>1) = 2%, and SAT3.0 = 0.2 g, P(DL>1) = 23.9%.

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