금리변동성이 기업 조세회피에 미치는 영향 ：기업의 재무적 제약과의 상호작용효과를 중심으로

초록

Against the backdrop of mixed research findings on the impact of external uncertainty on corporate tax avoidance and the COVID－19 pandemic, which significantly amplified market interest rate volatility, this study aims to empirically analyze the effect of market interest rate volatility on corporate tax avoidance. Meanwhile, the impact of market interest rate volatility may manifest heterogeneously depending on the level of financial constraints specific to individual firms. Therefore, this study links the macroeconomic factor of interest rate volatility with firms’ financial constraints to analyze the effect of their interaction on corporate tax avoidance. This study focuses on unlisted firms among audited companies, utilizing firm－year data from 2013 to 2022. The analysis period is divided into pre－COVID and COVID periods. Interest rate volatility is measured using three distinct variables ：interest rate futures, CD rates, and spreads. Financial constraint is measured using the K－ score from Altman et al.(1995). The analysis revealed that during the pre－COVID period, the interaction variable between interest rate volatility and the level of financial constraints showed a significant positive relationship with tax avoidance. However, during the COVID period, this relationship shifted to a significant negative one. These contrasting results suggest that while firms seek to secure liquidity based on precautionary motives during normal times, they adopt conservative strategies prioritizing survival during crises. Additional analysis confirmed that SMEs react more sensitively to interest rate volatility and exhibit more elastic changes in tax avoidance behavior. It also revealed that firms respond more sensitively to the level of interest rate uncertainty itself than to the direction of interest rates. This study expands the scope of prior research by empirically demonstrating the impact of the interaction between the macroeconomic factor of interest rate volatility and the level of corporate financial constraints on corporate tax strategies. It is also significant in that it distinguishes between the pre－COVID period and the COVID period in its empirical analysis, thereby proving the difference in strategic behavior exhibited by firms during normal times versus crises. The findings suggest that governments need to establish more flexible and sophisticated tax policies and financial support systems, taking into account the temporal specificity and firm size.

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