PLS-SEM과 베이지안 네트워크를 활용한 충청권역 생활용수 수요량 영향인자 분석

초록

Because domestic water demand is expected to change due to climate change, it is necessary to establish a regional customized water management strategy considering changes of domestic water demand. This study quantitatively evaluated the effects of social, economic and climatic factors on domestic water demand in the Chungcheong region using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and Bayesian network-based sensitivity analysis. The results show that economic factors, with an effect size of 0.324, have the most significant effect on water demand, particularly in areas with large industrial complexes. Social factors also demonstrated a moderate effect of 0.173, while climatic factors showed a relatively limited effect of 0.064. This study provides a basis for incorporating social, economic and climatic factors into the estimation of domestic water demand in the Chungcheong region, which can contribute to the development of region-specific water management plans. It can be also useful to design efficient domestic water management policies in response to climate change as well as social and economic structural changes.

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