연구개발의 경제성장 효과 분석

초록

Korea's TFP growth rates have been stationary despite its increasing R&D intensity ever since the 1970s. This paper resolves this puzzle by presenting the hypothesis that growth-accelerating effects of increasing R&D intensity have been offset by growth-decelerating effects of narrowing technological distance to frontier as latecomer's advantages fade away. Time series tests using an extended endogenous growth model with the two opposite effects in it show that this paper's hypothesis is not rejected by the data. Also, the optimal parameter values obtained by dynamic simulations imply that TFP growth in Korea has been extremely sensitive to the movements of the technological frontier, i.e. TFP of the US, while it has been quite insensitive to Korea's own R&D intensity. For example, if Korea's R&D intensity, or R&D expenditures as a percentage of GDP, increases by 1%p starting from the average value of the 1990s, Korea's growth rates would increase by only 0.16%p, whereas if Korea's TFP level increases from 47%(2000) to 80% of the US, growth rates would fall by 0.97%p. Although Korea's R&D intensity has already reached the level of advanced countries, its knowledge creation effect is far behind the frontier. Therefore, the quality and efficiency of R&D should be greatly enhanced for sustained economic growth.

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