사회 및 경제 요인과 공간구조지수를 활용한 생활용수 수요량의 시공간적 변동성 분석

초록

As domestic water demand increases, the likelihood of disputes over water allocation between regions is growing. To resolve the imbalance between water supply regions and consumption regions, it is necessary to investigate the spatio-temporal variability of water demand. This study calculated a spatial structure index based on social and economic factors and analyzed the spatio-temporal variability of domestic water demand using a standard deviation ellipse (SDE). Furthermore, we employed a random forest model to forecast future domestic water demand and analyzed its spatio-temporal variability. The results of SDE analysis indicated that the centroid of domestic water demand during the observation period shifted from 127.40°E, 36.49°N in 2000 to 127.38°E, 36.54°N in 2021, showing a northwestward movement trend. For the future prediction period, the centroid in SSP5 moved from 127.33°E, 36.60°N in 2025 to 127.29°E, 36.60°N in 2100. The overall directions of movement for SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5 were similar, but the magnitude of ellipse expansion was largest under SSP1 and smallest under SSP5. Examining the Gini Coefficient (GC) applied as a weight to interpret the ellipse's movement, the GC for domestic water demand in 2025 was highest in the following order: Daejeon, Cheongju, Cheonan, Sejong, and Asan. By 2100, the highest GC was in Daejeon(=Cheongju), followed by Sejong(=Cheonan), and Asan. Trends across cities and counties show that GC is generally increasing, which worsens the imbalance; however, some areas experienced volatility and occasional decreases. Overall, the spatial imbalance of domestic water demand decreased during the historical period but is projected to intensify in the future.

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