기후변화 시나리오에 따른 용수구역 기반 소구역의 가뭄전망 및 갈수빈도해석 : 김천시 지역을 중심으로

초록

Increase of climate variability due to climate change has paved the way for regional drought monitoring and outlook. In particular, Gimcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, is suffering from frequent and periodic drought damage as the frequency and magnitude of drought are increasing due to climate change. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze drought characteristics for sub-districts based on water district and calculate the basic low-flow considering climate change. In this study, meteorological and hydrological drought outlook were carried out for 8 sub-districts considering the water supply system and regional characteristics of Gimcheon-si according to various climate change scenarios. In addition, the low-flow frequency analysis for the near future was also performed using the total amount of runoff and the low-flow. The overall results indicated that, meteorological droughts were found to be dangerous in the S0(1974~2019) period and hydrological droughts would be dangerous in the S2(2041~2070) period for RCP 4.5 and in S3(2071~2099) period for RCP 8.5. The results of low-flow frequency analysis indicated that future runoff would increase but drought magnitude and frequency would increase further. The results and methodology may be useful for preparing local governments' drought measures and design standards for local water resources facilities.

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